The delegates at the Bali Climate Change conference had barely left the negotiating table. Maybe some of them were mercifully incommunicado, already in deep slumber on a long haul flight back home. Other, more stalwart ones, may have even have had a glass or two of bubbly to celebrate the eleventh hour turnaround by the United States, which finally meant consensus after weeks of wrangling.
Maybe even Papua New Guinea delegate Kevin Conrad, who had shamed the US Delegation with his "provide leadership, or get out of the way" zinger, maybe even he allowed himself a little self-congratulatory tipple. But all of these reactions could not account for the man in Washington, the one who had his fingers crossed behind his back the whole time. Saying one thing, while thinking another; acquiescing to a law banning torture, then doing another "signing statement," taking it all back. This is the Bush Method.
"Serious Concerns" was what the world heard coming from the White House, about what it thought was a done deal only hours old. Look at the body language, the tone of voice, the resigned frown on US Undersecretary of State Paula Dobriansky as she says that the US was finally, after being the butt of booing and hissing from the rest of the world, "joining consensus." I don't know where she was, hours later, when the White House issued its "signing statement." If she, by joining consensus, had overstepped her remit, then she probably had a hollow feeling in her stomach. If - much more likely - it had all been a ploy to dilute serious proposals to act to counter climate change, just so the prodigal US could be brought back inside the tent, then she and the rest of the US delegation could go back to their champagne.
As someone who used to sit at the table behind a "United States" nameplate, I used to keep in mind the classic Harvard Negotiation Project "Getting To Yes" principle of BATNA. The Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. In other words, you did your best to obtain what was the bottom line for the US (in my case, they were nuts-and-bolts issues involving NATO and the OECD). If you knew your BATNA, you could always stick to your guns, knowing that if consensus on the agreement in question was not achievable, you could walk away.
But if you wanted to return to negotiate with the same people (representing the same countries) another day, you didn't say, "Sure, I'll join the consensus," only to take it back when the session was over. That would be called negotiating in bad faith. Like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, like the apostle who denied his master, like all those good folk expressions ("cheat me once, shame on you; cheat me twice, shame on me"), who is going to trust the American Delegation next time? On Climate Change. On missiles in Europe. On anything where the good name of the United States is the one thing that counts.
With his "signing statement" post Bali, President Bush has effectively done what he has already done vis-a-vis Iraq: "It's over to you, Hillary (or Barack, or John, or whoever inherits the Oval Office in 2009). The list of major issues to be resolved by that lucky person has just gotten longer.