(Photo Source: World Economic Forum)
As of today, Americans and the rest of the world can say that "in less than a year..." Whatever your political convictions, the incontestable fact is that George W. Bush will have ceased to be President of the United States, and someone else will have taken up the reins of power. After the ceremonies and festivities of Inauguration Day January 20, 2009, there will be a new resident on Pennsylvania Avenue.
What that president does - whether Clinton "44" (as opposed to Clinton "42") or Obama One (I will leave it to others to speculate on which Republican might successfully distance himself from the disasters of Bush "43" to make it to the White House in 2009) - will be of paramount importance to resurrecting "Brand America." And it's not just the reputation - as crucial as that is - of the United States that will need a boost. The American economy will need immediate remedial treatment, if the country is to get back its leadership role in the world.
You don't see the limits of American military power juxtaposed with those of its economic power illustrated any more succinctly than in today's New York Times by Roger Cohen's op-ed "U.S. Soldiers and Shoppers Hit the Wall"
Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have pushed the U.S. armed forces to the limit. Many soldiers have scarcely seen their families in recent years. But a much larger American army, the one that's spent this century shopping, is even more overextended and its pain is now coming home to roost.
I have no idea what economic shocks are in store for us in 2008. But it is probably not overly pessimistic - nor terribly original - to say that the coming year will see further bleak developments in the ongoing credit crisis. Again, Roger Cohen
"The median American family is going into what looks like a recession owing more than 100 percent of its income," Warren [Elizabeth Warren of Harvard] said. No wonder Citigroup just set aside $4.1 billion to cover possible defaults on home-equity loans, credit cards and auto loans - shoes that have yet to drop.
So even though Senator Hillary Clinton has said that Iraq (as in, "extrication from") would be tackled immediately ("Starting Phased Redeployment within Hillary's First Days in Office"), that yearly gab-fest in the Alps, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, might actually be a chance to unveil some world class economic policies. The timing is interesting: Davos 2009 will be within days of the Inauguration.
For the next American president, getting the economy (starting with the US, but also the world's) on a healthier track will underpin everything else. Why is the US in Iraq in the first place? According to former Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz, who helpfully told us in May 2003
The truth is that for reasons that have a lot to do with the U.S. government bureaucracy we settled on the one issue that everyone could agree on which was weapons of mass destruction as the core reason.
Despite his later - short lived - World Bank presidency, Wolfowitz was not known for his economic acumen. Alan Greenspan, former US central banker, was known for his guru-like knowledge of the economy - and this is what he said about the reasons for the invasion of Iraq: "the Iraq War is largely about oil."
If you recall, the Bush-Cheney administration's very first order of business when it came on board in January 2001 was to conduct secret Energy Policy consultations with oil industry leaders. Note: a barrel of oil cost around $23 on Inauguration Day 2001. Some energy policy.
So here's the chance for President Number 44 to reach "open covenants, openly arrived at" (Woodrow Wilson's phrase): start in the open - a Presidential address at Davos would garner world attention - and stay in the open. A more appropriate, high level forum, days into the presidency, could not be found. Turning the page on Bush/Cheney is a topic that concerns not only Americans - the world is counting down, too.