Live blogging before lunch from Day Two of the Brussels Forum, which includes the roundtable on "Afghanistan and Pakistan: What Will It Take To Get It Right?" going on right now, with US "Af-Pak" envoy Richard Holbrooke in the center of things. According to Holbrooke, the key to success in Afghanistan is Pakistan, and the key to Pakistan is resolving the situation in Afghanistan. The Obama Administration, says Holbrooke, looks at the two countries as a pair.
"The heart of the problem is western Pakistan - the tribal areas," said Holbrooke. The Obama Administration approach is regional, he said, and puts emphasis not only on Af-Pak, but also "India, China, and all of Afghanistan's neighbors," stress on all the neighbors. Holbrooke on Pakistani sensitivities to drone attacks on their soil - "what drones?" he joked. But he forsees no on-the-ground presence by western forces there.
Despite Holbrooke's emphasis, relatively little attention was paid by the rest of the panel to analyzing the internal situation in Pakistan, though Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid pointed out such stultifyingly frustrating statistics as the Pakistani literacy rate today, "equal to that in 1947" when the Islamic state was founded.
On the panel, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski spoke of avoiding "messianic" goals for Afghanistan. He knows of what he speaks:
As a journalist, Minister Sikorski worked as a war correspondent in Angola and Afghanistan, and won the 1988 World Press Photo prize for one of his photographs taken in Afghanistan.
From Sikorski's comments, it was clear that he was "imbedded" with the Mujahidin during their war against the Soviet Union. His perspective, therefore, is probably unique among EU-NATO ministers, and he is sometimes mentioned as a potential replacement for outgoing NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.
Holbrooke took issue with a term in one of the questions: "'minimalist goals' - what does that mean?" Holbrooke is very aware of the historic resistance of Afghans to foreign invaders, occupiers, or even well-intentioned outsiders like NATO. If the goal is to "hand Afghanistan back" to its government and people, Holbrooke admits that "we don't yet control" the security situation.
Military-only solutions are out of favor among American, European, and Afghan representatives alike. Afghan National Security Advisor Zalmai Rasoul corrected the notion of an Obama "military" surge - "it's a comprehensive surge." FM Sikorski agreed, noting that until Obama came on the scene, military expenditure way outpaced that of development and civil institution-building.
Holbrooke spoke of a "vast program" involving other elements of national power beyond just the military, whose challenges are unprecedented - Holbrooke spoke of the "incredibly difficult logistical trail" that involves trouble spots as varied as Pakistan and Russia and the Central Asian states. He reminded journalists afterwards of the importance of Turkey's readiness to help in the Afghan civilian sector. The special envoy stressed NATO's and Europe's importance in solving the Af-Pak problem, and rejected the "coaliton of the willing" approach as an outdated notion.
Holbrooke underlined the power of the new approach, calling to mind the image of his President addressing the Iranian people directly in his Nowruz message. Straight-talking Holbrooke admits that drug-interdiction efforts in Afghanistan are a "total waste of money, the worst I've seen in decades of government service." He sees solutions in "draining the swamp" through expanded agicultural sector job creation programs - he's even picked the brain of the US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, who will get involved in upcoming Washington consultations with regional leaders.
How to deal with the Taliban? One questioner, a Danish parliamentarian, said that during a recent trip to the region, her interlocutors said that the West "should not talk to the Taliban." Afghan NSA Rasoul made a distinction between Taliban and other resistance fighters: "we need to leave the door open" to what is not a monolithic movement. But some will have to be fought and subdued. Sikorski deferred to "those who know best the situation, the Afghan authorities," for how best to identify and deal with the disparate Taliban elements.
The Taliban gain adherence, according to Holbrooke, not from their obscurantist program, but from their resistance to foreign forces and "sense of grievance." Taliban PR efforts continue unabated, with nightly broadcasts boasting of beheadings. Holbrooke says that ISAF is not countering Taliban propaganda. "Failures on the civilian side of the international effort - drugs, policing, information - are so enormous," said Holbrooke, that it will require a massive effort to implement the "comprehensive solution."